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Stará Ľubovňa vs Oravské Veselé — 3. liga - East 2020

Stará Ľubovňa
Stará Ľubovňa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
11/12/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 15Štadión MFK Goral Stará Ľubovňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Stará Ľubovňa73%
×Draw17%
Oravské Veselé11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stará Ľubovňa
2.41
Oravské Veselé
0.80

Stará Ľubovňa creates 201% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

creates per match

Stará Ľubovňa
2.71
Oravské Veselé
0.97

allows per match

Stará Ľubovňa
0.64
Oravské Veselé
2.10

finishing

Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par
Oravské Veselé+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Ľubovňa ↓

Oravské Veselé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stará Ľubovňa or draw
89%
Stará Ľubovňa or Oravské Veselé
83%
Draw or Oravské Veselé
27%

Winning margin

Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+
50%
Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals
91%
Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals
69%
Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals
43%
Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
55%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
19%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)
87%
Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Ľubovňa at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Oravské Veselé away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Ľubovňa attack 2.71 + Oravské Veselé defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.41

Oravské Veselé attack 0.97 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Stará Ľubovňa scores more
73%
level
17%
Oravské Veselé scores more
11%

Stará Ľubovňa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Stará Ľubovňa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stará Ľubovňa vs Oravské Veselé

Stará Ľubovňa beat Oravské Veselé 1-0 in 3. liga - East on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión MFK Goral Stará Ľubovňa in Stará Ľubovňa.