Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stará Ľubovňa vs Malženice — 2. liga 2019

Stará Ľubovňa
Stará Ľubovňa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malženice
Malženice
4/12/20252. liga2. liga · Round 21Štadión MFK Goral Stará Ľubovňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Stará Ľubovňa48%
×Draw25%
Malženice27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stará Ľubovňa
1.63
Malženice
1.17

Stará Ľubovňa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Stará Ľubovňa
1.39
Malženice
1.14

allows per match

Stará Ľubovňa
1.21
Malženice
1.88

finishing

Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par
Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Ľubovňa ↓

Malženice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stará Ľubovňa or draw
73%
Stará Ľubovňa or Malženice
75%
Draw or Malženice
52%

Winning margin

Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+
25%
Malženice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals
80%
Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals
48%
Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals
22%
Malženice 1+ goals
69%
Malženice 2+ goals
33%
Malženice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)
64%
Malženice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Ľubovňa at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Ľubovňa attack 1.39 + Malženice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Malženice attack 1.14 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stará Ľubovňa scores more
48%
level
25%
Malženice scores more
27%

Stará Ľubovňa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stará Ľubovňa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stará Ľubovňa vs Malženice

Stará Ľubovňa beat Malženice 2-0 in 2. liga on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión MFK Goral Stará Ľubovňa in Stará Ľubovňa.