Star Starachowice 3–0 Karpaty Krosno

Star Starachowice

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Karpaty Krosno

9/2/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Stadion Alitu Ożarów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Star Starachowice64%

×Draw20%

Karpaty Krosno16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Star StarachowiceExpected goals in this matchKarpaty Krosno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.97

Star Starachowice

2.14

Karpaty Krosno

0.97

Star Starachowice creates 121% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.80

creates per match

0.94

1.00

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Star Starachowice

1.80

Karpaty Krosno

0.94

allows per match

Star Starachowice

1.00

Karpaty Krosno

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Star Starachowice ↓

Karpaty Krosno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Star Starachowice or draw

84%

Star Starachowice or Karpaty Krosno

80%

Draw or Karpaty Krosno

36%

Winning margin

Star Starachowice wins by 2+

40%

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Star Starachowice 1+ goals

88%

Star Starachowice 2+ goals

63%

Star Starachowice 3+ goals

36%

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals

62%

Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals

25%

Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Star Starachowice (draw refunded)

80%

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Star Starachowice at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Star Starachowice attack 1.80 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.14

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Star Starachowice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Star Starachowice scores more

64%

level

20%

Karpaty Krosno scores more

16%

Star Starachowice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff