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Staphorst vs SC Genemuiden — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Staphorst
Staphorst
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SC Genemuiden
SC Genemuiden
4/13/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 29Sportpark Het Noorderslag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Staphorst39%
×Draw24%
SC Genemuiden37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staphorst
1.56
SC Genemuiden
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 51 away

creates per match

Staphorst
1.82
SC Genemuiden
1.65

allows per match

Staphorst
1.37
SC Genemuiden
1.29

finishing

Staphorst+0.00on par
SC Genemuiden+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staphorst ↓

SC Genemuiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Staphorst or draw
63%
Staphorst or SC Genemuiden
76%
Draw or SC Genemuiden
61%

Winning margin

Staphorst wins by 2+
19%
SC Genemuiden wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Staphorst 1+ goals
79%
Staphorst 2+ goals
46%
Staphorst 3+ goals
21%
SC Genemuiden 1+ goals
78%
SC Genemuiden 2+ goals
44%
SC Genemuiden 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Staphorst (draw refunded)
51%
SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staphorst at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.37 · 71 matches

SC Genemuiden away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staphorst attack 1.82 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

SC Genemuiden attack 1.65 + Staphorst defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Staphorst scores more
39%
level
24%
SC Genemuiden scores more
37%

Staphorst at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Staphorst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Staphorst 0–0 SC Genemuiden

Staphorst and SC Genemuiden drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Noorderslag in Staphorst.