Staphorst 2–2 RKAV Volendam: Result & Stats

Staphorst

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

RKAV Volendam

9/17/2022

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 7Sportpark Het Noorderslag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Staphorst48%

×Draw22%

RKAV Volendam30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StaphorstExpected goals in this matchRKAV Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.56

Staphorst

2.02

RKAV Volendam

1.56

Staphorst creates 29% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

1.82

creates per match

1.74

1.37

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Staphorst

1.82

RKAV Volendam

1.74

allows per match

Staphorst

1.37

RKAV Volendam

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Staphorst+0.00on par

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staphorst ↓

RKAV Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Staphorst or draw

70%

Staphorst or RKAV Volendam

78%

Draw or RKAV Volendam

52%

Winning margin

Staphorst wins by 2+

28%

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Staphorst 1+ goals

87%

Staphorst 2+ goals

60%

Staphorst 3+ goals

33%

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals

79%

RKAV Volendam 2+ goals

46%

RKAV Volendam 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Staphorst (draw refunded)

62%

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staphorst at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.37 · 71 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staphorst attack 1.82 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.02

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + Staphorst defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Staphorst scores more

48%

level

22%

RKAV Volendam scores more

30%

Staphorst at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Staphorst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff