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Staphorst vs Hsc 21 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Staphorst
Staphorst
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hsc 21
Hsc 21
5/9/2026Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 32Sportpark Het Noorderslag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Staphorst54%
×Draw21%
Hsc 2125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staphorst
2.12
Hsc 21
1.39

Staphorst creates 53% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 51 away

creates per match

Staphorst
1.82
Hsc 21
1.41

allows per match

Staphorst
1.37
Hsc 21
2.41

finishing

Staphorst+0.00on par
Hsc 21+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staphorst ↓

Hsc 21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Staphorst or draw
75%
Staphorst or Hsc 21
79%
Draw or Hsc 21
46%

Winning margin

Staphorst wins by 2+
32%
Hsc 21 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Staphorst 1+ goals
88%
Staphorst 2+ goals
62%
Staphorst 3+ goals
35%
Hsc 21 1+ goals
75%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
40%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Staphorst (draw refunded)
68%
Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staphorst at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.37 · 71 matches

Hsc 21 away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staphorst attack 1.82 + Hsc 21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.12

Hsc 21 attack 1.41 + Staphorst defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Staphorst scores more
54%
level
21%
Hsc 21 scores more
25%

Staphorst at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Staphorst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Staphorst 4–0 Hsc 21

Staphorst beat Hsc 21 4-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Noorderslag in Staphorst.