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Staphorst vs Hoogeveen — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Staphorst
Staphorst
FT
3 – 1
Hoogeveen
Hoogeveen
10/4/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 8Sportpark Het Noorderslag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Staphorst55%
×Draw20%
Hoogeveen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staphorst
2.21
Hoogeveen
1.42

Staphorst creates 56% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

creates per match

Staphorst
1.82
Hoogeveen
1.47

allows per match

Staphorst
1.37
Hoogeveen
2.59

finishing

Staphorst+0.00on par
Hoogeveen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staphorst ↓

Hoogeveen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Staphorst or draw
76%
Staphorst or Hoogeveen
80%
Draw or Hoogeveen
45%

Winning margin

Staphorst wins by 2+
34%
Hoogeveen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Staphorst 1+ goals
89%
Staphorst 2+ goals
65%
Staphorst 3+ goals
38%
Hoogeveen 1+ goals
76%
Hoogeveen 2+ goals
41%
Hoogeveen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Staphorst (draw refunded)
69%
Hoogeveen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staphorst at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.37 · 71 matches

Hoogeveen away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staphorst attack 1.82 + Hoogeveen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.21

Hoogeveen attack 1.47 + Staphorst defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Staphorst scores more
55%
level
20%
Hoogeveen scores more
24%

Staphorst at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Staphorst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Staphorst 3–1 Hoogeveen

Staphorst beat Hoogeveen 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Noorderslag in Staphorst.