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Staphorst vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Staphorst
Staphorst
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
S. Haanstra 51'
D. Schra 18'
5/18/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 33Sportpark Het Noorderslag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Staphorst42%
×Draw23%
Harkemase Boys34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staphorst
1.71
Harkemase Boys
1.52

Staphorst creates 13% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 98 away

creates per match

Staphorst
1.82
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

Staphorst
1.37
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

Staphorst+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staphorst ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Staphorst or draw
66%
Staphorst or Harkemase Boys
77%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
58%

Winning margin

Staphorst wins by 2+
22%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Staphorst 1+ goals
82%
Staphorst 2+ goals
51%
Staphorst 3+ goals
24%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
78%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
45%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Staphorst (draw refunded)
55%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staphorst at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.37 · 71 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staphorst attack 1.82 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + Staphorst defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Staphorst scores more
42%
level
23%
Harkemase Boys scores more
34%

Staphorst at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Staphorst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
D. Schra
51'
S. Haanstra

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Staphorst vs Harkemase Boys

Staphorst beat Harkemase Boys 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 18, 2024.

Goals: D. Schra (18'), S. Haanstra (51').

The match was played at Sportpark Het Noorderslag in Staphorst.