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Staphorst vs DVS 33 Ermelo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Staphorst
Staphorst
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
12/16/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 17Sportpark Het Noorderslag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Staphorst43%
×Draw24%
DVS 33 Ermelo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staphorst
1.67
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.46

Staphorst creates 14% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 100 away

creates per match

Staphorst
1.82
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.54

allows per match

Staphorst
1.37
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.51

finishing

Staphorst+0.00on par
DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staphorst ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Staphorst or draw
66%
Staphorst or DVS 33 Ermelo
76%
Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo
57%

Winning margin

Staphorst wins by 2+
22%
DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Staphorst 1+ goals
81%
Staphorst 2+ goals
50%
Staphorst 3+ goals
23%
DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
77%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
43%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Staphorst (draw refunded)
56%
DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staphorst at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.37 · 71 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staphorst attack 1.82 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + Staphorst defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Staphorst scores more
43%
level
24%
DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
34%

Staphorst at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Staphorst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Staphorst 1–0 DVS 33 Ermelo

Staphorst beat DVS 33 Ermelo 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Noorderslag in Staphorst.