StaPa De Royale 2–1 Loiske: Result & Stats

StaPa De Royale

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Loiske

4/12/2026

Suomen Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

StaPa De Royale21%

×Draw16%

Loiske62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StaPa De RoyaleExpected goals in this matchLoiske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

3.25

StaPa De Royale

1.92

Loiske

3.25

Loiske creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.83

creates per match

3.83

2.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

StaPa De Royale

1.83

Loiske

3.83

allows per match

StaPa De Royale

2.67

Loiske

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

StaPa De Royale+0.00on par

Loiske+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

StaPa De Royale ↓

Loiske →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–43%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

StaPa De Royale or draw

38%

StaPa De Royale or Loiske

84%

Draw or Loiske

79%

Winning margin

StaPa De Royale wins by 2+

10%

Loiske wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

StaPa De Royale 1+ goals

85%

StaPa De Royale 2+ goals

57%

StaPa De Royale 3+ goals

30%

Loiske 1+ goals

96%

Loiske 2+ goals

83%

Loiske 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

StaPa De Royale (draw refunded)

25%

Loiske (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

StaPa De Royale at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Loiske away — creates 3.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

StaPa De Royale attack 1.83 + Loiske defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Loiske attack 3.83 + StaPa De Royale defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

StaPa De Royale scores more

21%

level

16%

Loiske scores more

62%

Loiske at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Loiske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff