StaPa De Royale 1–0 Gilla: Result & Stats

StaPa De Royale

1 – 0

Gilla

3/24/2024

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

StaPa De Royale14%

×Draw15%

Gilla71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StaPa De RoyaleExpected goals in this matchGilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

3.21

StaPa De Royale

1.42

Gilla

3.21

Gilla creates 126% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.83

creates per match

3.75

2.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

StaPa De Royale

1.83

Gilla

3.75

allows per match

StaPa De Royale

2.67

Gilla

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

StaPa De Royale+0.00on par

Gilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

StaPa De Royale ↓

Gilla →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–36%

0–45%

1–01%

1–15%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

StaPa De Royale or draw

29%

StaPa De Royale or Gilla

85%

Draw or Gilla

86%

Winning margin

StaPa De Royale wins by 2+

Gilla wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

StaPa De Royale 1+ goals

76%

StaPa De Royale 2+ goals

41%

StaPa De Royale 3+ goals

17%

Gilla 1+ goals

96%

Gilla 2+ goals

82%

Gilla 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

StaPa De Royale (draw refunded)

17%

Gilla (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

StaPa De Royale at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Gilla away — creates 3.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

StaPa De Royale attack 1.83 + Gilla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gilla attack 3.75 + StaPa De Royale defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

StaPa De Royale scores more

14%

level

15%

Gilla scores more

71%

Gilla at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff