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StaPa De Royale vs EPS II — Suomen Cup 2018

StaPa De Royale
StaPa De Royale
FT
1 – 2
EPS II
EPS II
4/8/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

StaPa De Royale11%
×Draw12%
EPS II76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

StaPa De Royale
1.52
EPS II
3.83

EPS II creates 152% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

StaPa De Royale
1.83
EPS II
5.00

allows per match

StaPa De Royale
2.67
EPS II
1.20

finishing

StaPa De Royale+0.00on par
EPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

StaPa De Royale ↓

EPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

StaPa De Royale or draw
24%
StaPa De Royale or EPS II
88%
Draw or EPS II
89%

Winning margin

StaPa De Royale wins by 2+
5%
EPS II wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

StaPa De Royale 1+ goals
78%
StaPa De Royale 2+ goals
45%
StaPa De Royale 3+ goals
20%
EPS II 1+ goals
98%
EPS II 2+ goals
88%
EPS II 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

StaPa De Royale (draw refunded)
13%
EPS II (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

StaPa De Royale at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

EPS II away — creates 5.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

StaPa De Royale attack 1.83 + EPS II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

EPS II attack 5.00 + StaPa De Royale defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

StaPa De Royale scores more
11%
level
12%
EPS II scores more
76%

EPS II at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "EPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: StaPa De Royale 1–2 EPS II

EPS II beat StaPa De Royale 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.