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Stanway Rovers vs Gorleston — League #52 2026

Stanway Rovers
Stanway Rovers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gorleston
Gorleston
3/14/2026League #52League #52

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stanway Rovers65%
×Draw21%
Gorleston15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stanway Rovers
2.00
Gorleston
0.83

Stanway Rovers creates 141% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stanway Rovers
1.33
Gorleston
0.33

allows per match

Stanway Rovers
1.33
Gorleston
2.67

finishing

Stanway Rovers+0.00on par
Gorleston+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stanway Rovers ↓

Gorleston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stanway Rovers or draw
85%
Stanway Rovers or Gorleston
79%
Draw or Gorleston
35%

Winning margin

Stanway Rovers wins by 2+
40%
Gorleston wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Stanway Rovers 1+ goals
86%
Stanway Rovers 2+ goals
59%
Stanway Rovers 3+ goals
32%
Gorleston 1+ goals
56%
Gorleston 2+ goals
20%
Gorleston 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stanway Rovers (draw refunded)
81%
Gorleston (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stanway Rovers at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Gorleston away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stanway Rovers attack 1.33 + Gorleston defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Gorleston attack 0.33 + Stanway Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Stanway Rovers scores more
65%
level
21%
Gorleston scores more
15%

Stanway Rovers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Stanway Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stanway Rovers vs Gorleston

Stanway Rovers beat Gorleston 1-0 in League #52 on March 14, 2026.