Stanišić 1–2 Naftagas: Result & Stats

Stanišić

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Naftagas

10/16/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Fudbalski Teren FK Stanišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stanišić26%

×Draw25%

Naftagas50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StanišićExpected goals in this matchNaftagas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.63

Stanišić

1.10

Naftagas

1.63

Naftagas creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

0.80

creates per match

1.33

1.93

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Stanišić

0.80

Naftagas

1.33

allows per match

Stanišić

1.93

Naftagas

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stanišić+0.00on par

Naftagas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stanišić ↓

Naftagas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stanišić or draw

50%

Stanišić or Naftagas

75%

Draw or Naftagas

74%

Winning margin

Stanišić wins by 2+

10%

Naftagas wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Stanišić 1+ goals

67%

Stanišić 2+ goals

30%

Stanišić 3+ goals

10%

Naftagas 1+ goals

80%

Naftagas 2+ goals

48%

Naftagas 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stanišić (draw refunded)

34%

Naftagas (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stanišić at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Naftagas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stanišić attack 0.80 + Naftagas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Naftagas attack 1.33 + Stanišić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stanišić scores more

26%

level

25%

Naftagas scores more

50%

Naftagas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff