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Stanišić vs Kabel Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Stanišić
Stanišić
FT
1 – 0
Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
8/28/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Fudbalski Teren Fk Stanišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stanišić29%
×Draw26%
Kabel Novi Sad45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stanišić
1.08
Kabel Novi Sad
1.43

Kabel Novi Sad creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Stanišić
0.80
Kabel Novi Sad
0.93

allows per match

Stanišić
1.93
Kabel Novi Sad
1.36

finishing

Stanišić+0.00on par
Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stanišić ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stanišić or draw
55%
Stanišić or Kabel Novi Sad
74%
Draw or Kabel Novi Sad
71%

Winning margin

Stanišić wins by 2+
11%
Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stanišić 1+ goals
66%
Stanišić 2+ goals
29%
Stanišić 3+ goals
10%
Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
76%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
42%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stanišić (draw refunded)
39%
Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stanišić at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stanišić attack 0.80 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.93 + Stanišić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stanišić scores more
29%
level
26%
Kabel Novi Sad scores more
45%

Kabel Novi Sad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kabel Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stanišić vs Kabel Novi Sad

Stanišić beat Kabel Novi Sad 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Fudbalski Teren Fk Stanišić in Stanišić.