Stanišić 0–1 Hajduk 1912 Kula: Result & Stats

Stanišić

FT

0 – 1

Hajduk 1912 Kula

8/14/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 1Fudbalski Teren Fk Stanišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stanišić31%

×Draw25%

Hajduk 1912 Kula44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StanišićExpected goals in this matchHajduk 1912 Kula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.55

Stanišić

1.28

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.55

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

0.80

creates per match

1.18

1.93

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Stanišić

0.80

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.18

allows per match

Stanišić

1.93

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stanišić+0.00on par

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stanišić ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stanišić or draw

56%

Stanišić or Hajduk 1912 Kula

75%

Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula

69%

Winning margin

Stanišić wins by 2+

13%

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Stanišić 1+ goals

72%

Stanišić 2+ goals

37%

Stanišić 3+ goals

14%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals

79%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals

46%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stanišić (draw refunded)

42%

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stanišić at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stanišić attack 0.80 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.28

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Stanišić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stanišić scores more

31%

level

25%

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more

44%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff