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Standard Liege W vs White Star Woluwe W — Super League Women 2018

Standard Liege W
Standard Liege W
FT
4 – 1
White Star Woluwe W
White Star Woluwe W
10/2/2021Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 5Académie Robert Louis-Dreyfus - Terrain 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Standard Liege W73%
×Draw16%
White Star Woluwe W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege W
2.67
White Star Woluwe W
0.98

Standard Liege W creates 172% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

creates per match

Standard Liege W
2.20
White Star Woluwe W
0.88

allows per match

Standard Liege W
1.08
White Star Woluwe W
3.15

finishing

Standard Liege W+0.00on par
White Star Woluwe W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege W ↓

White Star Woluwe W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Standard Liege W or draw
88%
Standard Liege W or White Star Woluwe W
84%
Draw or White Star Woluwe W
27%

Winning margin

Standard Liege W wins by 2+
51%
White Star Woluwe W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Standard Liege W 1+ goals
93%
Standard Liege W 2+ goals
74%
Standard Liege W 3+ goals
49%
White Star Woluwe W 1+ goals
62%
White Star Woluwe W 2+ goals
26%
White Star Woluwe W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege W (draw refunded)
86%
White Star Woluwe W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

White Star Woluwe W away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege W attack 2.20 + White Star Woluwe W defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.67

White Star Woluwe W attack 0.88 + Standard Liege W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Standard Liege W scores more
73%
level
16%
White Star Woluwe W scores more
12%

Standard Liege W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Standard Liege W vs White Star Woluwe W

Standard Liege W beat White Star Woluwe W 4-1 in Super League Women on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Académie Robert Louis-Dreyfus - Terrain 5 in Angleur.