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Standard Liege W vs Genk W — Super League Women 2018

Standard Liege W
Standard Liege W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Genk W
Genk W
1/18/2025Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 13Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Standard Liege W53%
×Draw22%
Genk W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege W
2.04
Genk W
1.36

Standard Liege W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 104 away

creates per match

Standard Liege W
2.20
Genk W
1.64

allows per match

Standard Liege W
1.08
Genk W
1.87

finishing

Standard Liege W+0.00on par
Genk W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege W ↓

Genk W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Standard Liege W or draw
75%
Standard Liege W or Genk W
78%
Draw or Genk W
47%

Winning margin

Standard Liege W wins by 2+
31%
Genk W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Standard Liege W 1+ goals
87%
Standard Liege W 2+ goals
60%
Standard Liege W 3+ goals
33%
Genk W 1+ goals
74%
Genk W 2+ goals
39%
Genk W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege W (draw refunded)
68%
Genk W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Genk W away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.87 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege W attack 2.20 + Genk W defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Genk W attack 1.64 + Standard Liege W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Standard Liege W scores more
53%
level
22%
Genk W scores more
25%

Standard Liege W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Standard Liege W vs Genk W

Standard Liege W beat Genk W 2-0 in Super League Women on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Luik.