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Standard Liege vs RWDM — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Standard Liege
Standard Liege
CANC
10:00
RWDM
RWDM
8/2/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SL16 Football Campus - Terrain 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Standard Liege52%
×Draw21%
RWDM27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege
2.19
RWDM
1.54

Standard Liege creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Standard Liege
1.64
RWDM
2.00

allows per match

Standard Liege
1.09
RWDM
2.75

finishing

Standard Liege+0.00on par
RWDM+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

RWDM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw
73%
Standard Liege or RWDM
79%
Draw or RWDM
48%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+
31%
RWDM wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals
89%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
64%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
37%
RWDM 1+ goals
79%
RWDM 2+ goals
45%
RWDM 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)
66%
RWDM (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

RWDM away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.64 + RWDM defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.19

RWDM attack 2.00 + Standard Liege defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Standard Liege scores more
52%
level
21%
RWDM scores more
27%

Standard Liege at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Standard Liege host RWDM

August 2, 2021: Standard Liege take on RWDM in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Standard Liege host RWDM at SL16 Football Campus - Terrain 5.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.