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Standard Liege vs Fehérvár FC — UEFA Europa League 2018

Standard Liege
Standard Liege
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
10/1/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Play-offsMaurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Standard Liege43%
×Draw25%
Fehérvár FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege
1.50
Fehérvár FC
1.25

Standard Liege creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Standard Liege
1.82
Fehérvár FC
1.50

allows per match

Standard Liege
1.00
Fehérvár FC
1.17

finishing

Standard Liege+0.00on par
Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Fehérvár FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw
68%
Standard Liege or Fehérvár FC
75%
Draw or Fehérvár FC
57%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+
21%
Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals
78%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
44%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
19%
Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
71%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
36%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)
58%
Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.82 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fehérvár FC attack 1.50 + Standard Liege defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Standard Liege scores more
43%
level
25%
Fehérvár FC scores more
32%

Standard Liege at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Standard Liege 3–1 Fehérvár FC

Standard Liege beat Fehérvár FC 3-1 in UEFA Europa League on October 1, 2020.

The match was played at Maurice Dufrasne in Liege.