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Standard Liege vs Dender — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Standard Liege
Standard Liege
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dender
Dender
5/17/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 9Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Standard Liege43%
×Draw24%
Dender33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege
1.58
Dender
1.35

Standard Liege creates 17% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

creates per match

Standard Liege
1.23
Dender
1.23

allows per match

Standard Liege
1.47
Dender
1.94

finishing

Standard Liege-0.35scores less
Dender-0.17scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Dender →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw
67%
Standard Liege or Dender
76%
Draw or Dender
57%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+
22%
Dender wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals
79%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
47%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
21%
Dender 1+ goals
74%
Dender 2+ goals
39%
Dender 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)
57%
Dender (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.47 · 41 matches

Dender away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.23 + Dender defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dender attack 1.23 + Standard Liege defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Standard Liege scores more
43%
level
24%
Dender scores more
33%

Standard Liege at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
I. HautekietStandard LiegeStandard Liege · D
7.9

Match Events

39'
L. Kuavita← A. Hountondji
40'
Bryan Goncalves
64'
A. Scheidler← M. Berte
64'
F. Ferraro← D. Sylla
68'
J. Nam← L. Amani
72'
L. Hens← M. Viltard
73'
J. Van Oudenhove← R. Květ
77'
H. Lawrence← A. Calut
86'
J. Attah Kadiri← B. Nsimba

Possession

41%Standard

Shots

6Standard

Pass accuracy

48%Standard

Statistics

StandardDender
Overview
41%Possession59%
6Total Shots4
1.31Expected Goals (xG)0.13
5Corners4
9Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots4
1On Target0
3Off Target1
2Blocked3
3Inside Box1
3Outside Box3
Passing
41%Possession59%
350Total Passes512
269Accurate Passes425
77%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
0.33Goals Prevented0.33
Discipline
9Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Jupiler Pro League: Standard Liege 0–0 Dender

Standard Liege and Dender drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on May 17, 2025.

Dender controlled possession (59%) and registered 4 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Luik.