Standard Liège II 1–2 Rochefort: Result & Stats

Standard Liège II

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rochefort

Y. Gboua 68'

A. Sarr 86'

M. Renquin 75'

12/14/2024

League #487 · ACFF - 17SL16 Football Campus - Terrain 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Standard Liège II44%

×Draw26%

Rochefort30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Standard Liège IIExpected goals in this matchRochefort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.17

Standard Liège II

1.46

Rochefort

1.17

Standard Liège II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.25

creates per match

1.08

1.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Standard Liège II

1.25

Rochefort

1.08

allows per match

Standard Liège II

1.25

Rochefort

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Standard Liège II+0.00on par

Rochefort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liège II ↓

Rochefort →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Standard Liège II or draw

70%

Standard Liège II or Rochefort

74%

Draw or Rochefort

56%

Winning margin

Standard Liège II wins by 2+

21%

Rochefort wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Standard Liège II 1+ goals

77%

Standard Liège II 2+ goals

43%

Standard Liège II 3+ goals

18%

Rochefort 1+ goals

69%

Rochefort 2+ goals

33%

Rochefort 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Standard Liège II (draw refunded)

59%

Rochefort (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Standard Liège II at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Rochefort away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liège II attack 1.25 + Rochefort defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rochefort attack 1.08 + Standard Liège II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Standard Liège II scores more

44%

level

26%

Rochefort scores more

30%

Standard Liège II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Standard Liège II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

C. Uhía← G. Gall

60'

R. Mateta← H. Sahabo

62'

M. Wilmots← G. Robail

68'

Y. Gboua

72'

M. Renquin← J. Libert

72'

G. Smal← B. Van Den Ackerveken

75'

M. Renquin

82'

N. Azevedo-Janelas

82'

N. Azevedo-Janelas

82'

A. Giunta← E. Lukoki Mateso

86'

A. Sarr

89'

F. Cissé← V. Boboy

89'

M. Šimičić← T. Paulo da Silva

90'

M. Godfroid

90+3'

N. Radelet← M. Hannedouche

Standard

Rochefort

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: O. Krause

60'▲R. Mateta←▼H. Sahabo

82'▲A. Giunta←▼E. Lukoki Mateso

89'▲F. Cissé←▼V. Boboy

89'▲M. Šimičić←▼T. Paulo da Silva

90+3'▲N. Radelet←▼M. Hannedouche

Standard Liège II substitutes

MatetaGiuntaCisséŠimičićRadelet

Manager: J. Rentmeister

58'▲C. Uhía←▼G. Gall

62'▲M. Wilmots←▼G. Robail

72'▲M. Renquin←▼J. Libert

72'▲G. Smal←▼B. Van Den Ackerveken

Rochefort substitutes

UhíaWilmotsRenquinSmal