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Stallion W vs Melbourne City W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

Stallion W
Stallion W
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Melbourne City W
Melbourne City W
11/16/2025AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Group Stage - 2Thong Nhat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stallion W15%
×Draw15%
Melbourne City W70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stallion W
1.50
Melbourne City W
3.21

Melbourne City W creates 114% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stallion W
3.00
Melbourne City W
3.67

allows per match

Stallion W
2.75
Melbourne City W
0.00

finishing

Stallion W+0.00on par
Melbourne City W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stallion W ↓

Melbourne City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Stallion W or draw
30%
Stallion W or Melbourne City W
85%
Draw or Melbourne City W
85%

Winning margin

Stallion W wins by 2+
6%
Melbourne City W wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Stallion W 1+ goals
78%
Stallion W 2+ goals
44%
Stallion W 3+ goals
19%
Melbourne City W 1+ goals
96%
Melbourne City W 2+ goals
82%
Melbourne City W 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Stallion W (draw refunded)
18%
Melbourne City W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stallion W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Melbourne City W away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stallion W attack 3.00 + Melbourne City W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melbourne City W attack 3.67 + Stallion W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Stallion W scores more
15%
level
15%
Melbourne City W scores more
70%

Melbourne City W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Melbourne City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Women's Champions League: Stallion W 0–7 Melbourne City W

Melbourne City W beat Stallion W 7-0 in AFC Women's Champions League on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Thong Nhat Stadium in Ho Chi Minh City.