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Stallion W vs Lion City W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

Stallion W
Stallion W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lion City W
Lion City W
11/19/2025AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Group Stage - 3Thong Nhat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stallion W69%
×Draw15%
Lion City W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stallion W
3.38
Lion City W
1.63

Stallion W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stallion W
3.00
Lion City W
0.50

allows per match

Stallion W
2.75
Lion City W
3.75

finishing

Stallion W+0.00on par
Lion City W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stallion W ↓

Lion City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Stallion W or draw
84%
Stallion W or Lion City W
85%
Draw or Lion City W
31%

Winning margin

Stallion W wins by 2+
51%
Lion City W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stallion W 1+ goals
96%
Stallion W 2+ goals
84%
Stallion W 3+ goals
64%
Lion City W 1+ goals
80%
Lion City W 2+ goals
48%
Lion City W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stallion W (draw refunded)
81%
Lion City W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stallion W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Lion City W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stallion W attack 3.00 + Lion City W defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.38

Lion City W attack 0.50 + Stallion W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Stallion W scores more
69%
level
15%
Lion City W scores more
16%

Stallion W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Stallion W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stallion W vs Lion City W

Stallion W beat Lion City W 5-0 in AFC Women's Champions League on November 19, 2025.

The match was played at Thong Nhat Stadium in Ho Chi Minh City.