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Stallion vs Ceres — PFL 2020

Stallion
Stallion
CANC
00:00
Ceres
Ceres
3/18/2023PFLPFL · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stallion26%
×Draw17%
Ceres57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stallion
2.06
Ceres
3.04

Ceres creates 48% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stallion
2.98
Ceres
4.69

allows per match

Stallion
1.40
Ceres
1.15

finishing

Stallion+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stallion ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Stallion or draw
43%
Stallion or Ceres
83%
Draw or Ceres
74%

Winning margin

Stallion wins by 2+
13%
Ceres wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Stallion 1+ goals
87%
Stallion 2+ goals
61%
Stallion 3+ goals
34%
Ceres 1+ goals
95%
Ceres 2+ goals
80%
Ceres 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Stallion (draw refunded)
31%
Ceres (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stallion at home — creates 2.98, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

Ceres away — creates 4.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stallion attack 2.98 + Ceres defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ceres attack 4.69 + Stallion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stallion scores more
26%
level
17%
Ceres scores more
57%

Ceres at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stallion host Ceres

March 18, 2023: Stallion take on Ceres in PFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.