Stal Stalowa Wola 2–1 Znicz Pruszków

Stal Stalowa Wola

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Znicz Pruszków

M. Fidziukiewicz 82'

M. Mistrzyk 75'

D. Zjawiński 29'

11/23/2019

II Liga - East · Round 19IZO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola45%

×Draw25%

Znicz Pruszków30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal Stalowa WolaExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.22

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.54

Znicz Pruszków

1.22

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

1.63

creates per match

1.36

1.08

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.63

Znicz Pruszków

1.36

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.08

Znicz Pruszków

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw

70%

Stal Stalowa Wola or Znicz Pruszków

75%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

55%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

22%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

79%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

45%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

20%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

70%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

34%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

60%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

45%

level

25%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

30%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

D. Zjawiński

44'

P. Mrozinski

56'

M. Fidziukiewicz← M. Płonka

69'

Ł. Pietras← P. Stelmach

69'

F. Wójcik← B. Ciepiela

75'

M. Mistrzyk

78'

P. Jóźwiak← A. Pyrka

80'

P. Jozwiak

82'

M. Fidziukiewicz

84'

P. Moskwik

84'

M. Suchanek← P. Moskwik

90'

R. Dadok

90'

Stal

Znicz

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Szydelko

56'▲M. Fidziukiewicz←▼M. Płonka

69'▲Ł. Pietras←▼P. Stelmach

69'▲F. Wójcik←▼B. Ciepiela

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

FidziukiewiczPietrasWójcik

Manager: P. Mosor

78'▲P. Jóźwiak←▼A. Pyrka

84'▲M. Suchanek←▼P. Moskwik

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

JóźwiakSuchanek