Stal Stalowa Wola 2–1 Zagłębie Lubin II

Stal Stalowa Wola

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zagłębie Lubin II

5/25/2024

II Liga - East · Round 34Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola52%

×Draw23%

Zagłębie Lubin II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal Stalowa WolaExpected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.15

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.80

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.15

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.63

creates per match

1.21

1.08

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.63

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.21

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.08

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw

76%

Stal Stalowa Wola or Zagłębie Lubin II

77%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II

48%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

29%

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

83%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

54%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

27%

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

68%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

32%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

68%

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.80

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

52%

level

23%

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

24%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff