Stal Stalowa Wola 1–3 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Stal Stalowa Wola

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Wisla Plock

João Tavares 88'

K. Pomorski 90'

Iban Salvador 45+2'

P. Misiak 17'

9/14/2024

I Liga · Round 9Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola26%

×Draw25%

Wisla Plock48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal Stalowa WolaExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.57

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.09

Wisla Plock

1.57

Wisla Plock creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

0.71

creates per match

1.21

1.94

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

0.71

Wisla Plock

1.21

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.94

Wisla Plock

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw

52%

Stal Stalowa Wola or Wisla Plock

75%

Draw or Wisla Plock

74%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

10%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

66%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

30%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

10%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

79%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

46%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

35%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 0.71 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

26%

level

25%

Wisla Plock scores more

48%

Wisla Plock at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Haglind-Sangre

17'

P. Misiak

45+2'

Iban Salvador

46'

B. Pioterczak← K. Chełmecki

46'

J. Górski← M. Mydlarz

59'

D. Kocyła← Ł. Sekulski

59'

P. Krawczyk← Iban Salvador

61'

D. Pacheco

63'

B. Kukułowicz← D. Urban

65'

J. Banach← D. Jończy

75'

A. Edmundsson

75'

J. Szymański← F. Hiszpański

81'

S. Strózik← M. Ruszel

82'

K. Pomorski← Jime

88'

João Tavares

90'

K. Pomorski

Stal

Wisla

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: I. Pietrzykowski

46'▲B. Pioterczak←▼K. Chełmecki

46'▲J. Górski←▼M. Mydlarz

63'▲B. Kukułowicz←▼D. Urban

65'▲J. Banach←▼D. Jończy

81'▲S. Strózik←▼M. Ruszel

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

PioterczakGórskiKukułowiczBanachStrózikWilkPchełkaŠvecLelek

Manager: M. Misiura

59'▲D. Kocyła←▼Ł. Sekulski

59'▲P. Krawczyk←▼Iban Salvador

75'▲J. Szymański←▼F. Hiszpański

82'▲K. Pomorski←▼Jime

Wisla Plock substitutes

KocyłaKrawczykSzymańskiPomorskiBorowskiGradeckiNiepsujBrzozowskiFamulak

Match Recap: Stal Stalowa Wola vs Wisla Plock

Wisla Plock beat Stal Stalowa Wola 3-1 in I Liga on September 14, 2024.

Goals: P. Misiak (17'), Iban Salvador (45+2'), João Tavares (88'), K. Pomorski (90').

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.

Stal Stalowa Wola vs Wisla Plock — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stal Stalowa Wola vs Wisla Plock