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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
8/26/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 6Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola45%
×Draw27%
Stomil Olsztyn28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.38
Stomil Olsztyn
1.01

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 37% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.63
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.08
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
72%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Stomil Olsztyn
73%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
55%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
22%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
75%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
40%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
16%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
64%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
27%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
62%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
45%
level
27%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
28%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 0–1 Stomil Olsztyn

Stomil Olsztyn beat Stal Stalowa Wola 1-0 in II Liga - East on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.