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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Star Starachowice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola66%
×Draw18%
Star Starachowice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
2.44
Star Starachowice
1.10

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 122% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
2.67
Star Starachowice
1.20

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.00
Star Starachowice
2.20

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Star Starachowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
84%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Star Starachowice
82%
Draw or Star Starachowice
34%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
44%
Star Starachowice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
91%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
70%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
43%
Star Starachowice 1+ goals
67%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
30%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
81%
Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 2.67 + Star Starachowice defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Star Starachowice attack 1.20 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
66%
level
18%
Star Starachowice scores more
16%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Stal Stalowa Wola 2–0 Star Starachowice

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Star Starachowice 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.