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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
11/5/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 16Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola50%
×Draw24%
Radunia Stężyca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.71
Radunia Stężyca
1.17

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 61 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.63
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.08
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
74%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Radunia Stężyca
76%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
50%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
27%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
82%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
51%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
24%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
69%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
33%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
66%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
50%
level
24%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
26%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 1–2 Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Stal Stalowa Wola 2-1 in II Liga - East on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.