Stal Stalowa Wola 2–2 Olimpia Grudziądz

Stal Stalowa Wola

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpia Grudziądz

D. Wolny 62'

P. Zaucha 35'

M. Pawlowski 90'

T. Kaczmarek 82'

11/23/2025

II Liga - East · Round 18Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola47%

×Draw25%

Olimpia Grudziądz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal Stalowa WolaExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.17

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.60

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.17

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 37% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

1.63

creates per match

1.26

1.08

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.63

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.26

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.08

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw

72%

Stal Stalowa Wola or Olimpia Grudziądz

75%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

53%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

24%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

80%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

47%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

22%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

69%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

33%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

63%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

47%

level

25%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

28%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

P. Zaucha

62'

D. Wolny

63'

L. Hrnciar← J. Niedbala

63'

A. Siemaszko← F. Koperski

69'

D. Lacki← D. Wolny

69'

K. Lelek← K. Getinger

73'

78'

78'

82'

88'

A. Klimczak← I. Tsyupa

89'

J. Stepak

90'

M. Pawlowski

Stal

Olimpia

71

Sobolewsk

93

▼

Tsyupa

25

Zbiciak

5

Czajka

77

▼

44

10

26

7

⚽

Kaczmarek

69

⚽

Pawlowski

72

▼

53

2

4

6

7

10

▼

Hebel

11

⚽

Zaucha

23

▼

Getinger

19

⚽

▼

Wolny

20

▼

Niedbala

77

▼

Kendzia

Manager: Maciej Musial

63'▲L. Hrnciar←▼J. Niedbala

69'▲D. Lacki←▼D. Wolny

69'▲K. Lelek←▼K. Getinger

78'▲J. Svec←▼J. Kendzia

78'▲M. Surzyn←▼M. Hebel

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

33Smylek8Hrnciar9Lacki13Svec16Lelek18Surzyn28Bystrek43Fedejko44Tyburczy

Manager: Artur Kosznicki

63'▲A. Siemaszko←▼F. Koperski

73'▲K. Fietz←▼R. Kobryn

88'▲A. Klimczak←▼I. Tsyupa

Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes

31HallmannKoncewicz-Zylka3Klimczak70Nowacki16Fietz42Zablonski17Siemaszko

Match Recap: Stal Stalowa Wola vs Olimpia Grudziądz

Stal Stalowa Wola and Olimpia Grudziądz drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on November 23, 2025.

Goals: P. Zaucha (35'), D. Wolny (62'), T. Kaczmarek (82'), M. Pawlowski (90').

The match was played at Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola in Stalowa Wola.

Stal Stalowa Wola vs Olimpia Grudziądz — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stal Stalowa Wola vs Olimpia Grudziądz