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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Lewart — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
0 – 0
Lewart
Lewart
9/19/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola59%
×Draw22%
Lewart19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.89
Lewart
0.95

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 99% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 37 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.89
Lewart
0.95

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
0.96
Lewart
1.89

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Lewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
81%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Lewart
78%
Draw or Lewart
41%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
35%
Lewart wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
85%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
56%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
29%
Lewart 1+ goals
61%
Lewart 2+ goals
25%
Lewart 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
76%
Lewart (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.89 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.89

Lewart attack 0.95 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
59%
level
22%
Lewart scores more
19%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Stalowa Wola vs Lewart

Stal Stalowa Wola and Lewart drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.