Stal Stalowa Wola 3–0 Górnik Polkowice

Stal Stalowa Wola

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

K. Śpiewak 59'

S. Jarosz 30'

D. Chromiński 20'

7/4/2020

II Liga - East · Round 30Stadion ROSRRiT (Siedlce)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola42%

×Draw26%

Górnik Polkowice32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal Stalowa WolaExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.24

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.46

Górnik Polkowice

1.24

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

1.63

creates per match

1.40

1.08

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.63

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.08

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw

68%

Stal Stalowa Wola or Górnik Polkowice

74%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

58%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

20%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

77%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

43%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

18%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

71%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

35%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

57%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

42%

level

26%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

32%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

29'

30'

59'

61'

M. Baszak← D. Radziemski

67'

K. Waclawczyk

68'

J. Król← M. Szuszkiewicz

69'

D. Chrominski

74'

B. Ciepiela← D. Chromiński

75'

J. Krol

78'

K. Osiadły← F. Baranowski

79'

S. Jopek

82'

S. Jarosz

83'

A. Szczutowski← K. Śpiewak

85'

A. Waszkiewicz← M. Fidziukiewicz

89'

K. Ciupka← M. Bednarski

90+2'

M. Magdziak

90'

W. Stępniowski← P. Stelmach

Stal

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Śpiewak

Mroziński

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Szydelko

74'▲B. Ciepiela←▼D. Chromiński

83'▲A. Szczutowski←▼K. Śpiewak

85'▲A. Waszkiewicz←▼M. Fidziukiewicz

90'▲W. Stępniowski←▼P. Stelmach

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

CiepielaSzczutowskiWaszkiewiczStępniowski

Manager: E. Dobi

61'▲M. Baszak←▼D. Radziemski

68'▲J. Król←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

78'▲K. Osiadły←▼F. Baranowski

89'▲K. Ciupka←▼M. Bednarski

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

BaszakKrólOsiadłyCiupka

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 3–0 Górnik Polkowice

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Górnik Polkowice 3-0 in II Liga - East on July 4, 2020.

Goals: D. Chromiński (20'), S. Jarosz (30'), K. Śpiewak (59').

The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT (Siedlce).

Stal Stalowa Wola vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 3–0 Górnik Polkowice