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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
6/27/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 28Stadion Stali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola46%
×Draw25%
Garbarnia Kraków29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.55
Garbarnia Kraków
1.18

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.63
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.08
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
71%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Garbarnia Kraków
75%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
54%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
23%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
79%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
46%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
20%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
69%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
33%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
61%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
46%
level
25%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
29%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 0–2 Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Stal Stalowa Wola 2-0 in II Liga - East on June 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Stali in Stalowa Wola.