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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
3 – 2
Łagów
Łagów
5/22/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 37Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola44%
×Draw26%
Łagów30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.46
Łagów
1.16

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 26% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 45 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.89
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
0.96
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
70%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Łagów
74%
Draw or Łagów
56%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
21%
Łagów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
77%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
43%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
18%
Łagów 1+ goals
69%
Łagów 2+ goals
32%
Łagów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
59%
Łagów (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.89 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.46

Łagów attack 1.36 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
44%
level
26%
Łagów scores more
30%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Stal Stalowa Wola 3–2 Łagów

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Łagów 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.