Stal Rzeszów 0–1 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Stal Rzeszów

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wisla Plock

Ł. Sekulski 48'

9/15/2023

I Liga · Round 8Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stal Rzeszów43%

×Draw24%

Wisla Plock33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal RzeszówExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.38

Stal Rzeszów

1.61

Wisla Plock

1.38

Stal Rzeszów creates 17% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

1.75

creates per match

1.21

1.54

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów

1.75

Wisla Plock

1.21

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów

1.54

Wisla Plock

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw

67%

Stal Rzeszów or Wisla Plock

76%

Draw or Wisla Plock

57%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+

22%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals

80%

Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals

48%

Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals

22%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

75%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

40%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)

57%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.75 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.61

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more

43%

level

24%

Wisla Plock scores more

33%

Stal Rzeszów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

21'

23'

27'

33'

35'

48'

63'

Jime← D. Kocyła

63'

K. Laskowski← É. Thiakane

65'

J. Díaz← M. Ponce

65'

P. Oleksy← Ł. Góra

65'

S. Thill← S. Łyczko

70'

A. Szczutowski← M. Biernat

75'

K. Laskowski

77'

C. Peña← K. Wachowiak

80'

K. Sadłocha← A. Da Silva

90+5'

K. Koscielny

90+5'

K. Koscielny

90+5'

K. Koscielny

90+7'

J. Diaz

90+9'

B. Gradecki

Stal

Wisla

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Zub

65'▲J. Díaz←▼M. Ponce

65'▲P. Oleksy←▼Ł. Góra

65'▲S. Thill←▼S. Łyczko

77'▲C. Peña←▼K. Wachowiak

80'▲K. Sadłocha←▼A. Da Silva

Stal Rzeszów substitutes

DíazOleksyThillPeñaSadłochaBieszczadŁysiakŠimčákKłos

Manager: M. Saganowski

33'▲F. Lesniak←▼J. Grič

63'▲Jime←▼D. Kocyła

63'▲K. Laskowski←▼É. Thiakane

70'▲A. Szczutowski←▼M. Biernat

Wisla Plock substitutes

LesniakJimeLaskowskiSzczutowskiChrzanowskiHiszpańskiDrapińskiJanusKamiński