Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stal Rzeszów vs Sokół Ostróda — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
5/22/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 35Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stal Rzeszów54%
×Draw22%
Sokół Ostróda24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
1.96
Sokół Ostróda
1.22

Stal Rzeszów creates 61% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.81
Sokół Ostróda
1.06

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.38
Sokół Ostróda
2.11

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
76%
Stal Rzeszów or Sokół Ostróda
78%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
46%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
32%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
86%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
58%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
31%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
70%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
34%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
70%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.81 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
54%
level
22%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
24%

Stal Rzeszów at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Rzeszów vs Sokół Ostróda

Stal Rzeszów beat Sokół Ostróda 3-1 in II Liga - East on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.