Stal Rzeszów 1–0 Radunia Stężyca: Result & Stats

Stal Rzeszów

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Radunia Stężyca

9/12/2021

II Liga - East · Round 8Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Stal Rzeszów49%

×Draw23%

Radunia Stężyca28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal RzeszówExpected goals in this matchRadunia Stężyca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.31

Stal Rzeszów

1.80

Radunia Stężyca

1.31

Stal Rzeszów creates 37% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 61 away

1.81

creates per match

1.25

1.38

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów

1.81

Radunia Stężyca

1.25

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów

1.38

Radunia Stężyca

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Radunia Stężyca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw

72%

Stal Rzeszów or Radunia Stężyca

77%

Draw or Radunia Stężyca

51%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+

27%

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals

83%

Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals

54%

Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals

27%

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

73%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

38%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)

64%

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.81 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.80

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more

49%

level

23%

Radunia Stężyca scores more

28%

Stal Rzeszów at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff