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Stal Rzeszów vs Motor Lublin — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
5/7/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 32Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Stal Rzeszów44%
×Draw25%
Motor Lublin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
1.53
Motor Lublin
1.25

Stal Rzeszów creates 22% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.81
Motor Lublin
1.13

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.38
Motor Lublin
1.25

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
69%
Stal Rzeszów or Motor Lublin
75%
Draw or Motor Lublin
56%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
22%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
78%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
45%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
20%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
71%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
36%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
58%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.81 + Motor Lublin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

Motor Lublin attack 1.13 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
44%
level
25%
Motor Lublin scores more
31%

Stal Rzeszów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stal Rzeszów 1–1 Motor Lublin

Stal Rzeszów and Motor Lublin drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.