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Stal Rzeszów vs Legionovia Legionowo — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
8/4/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 2Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stal Rzeszów56%
×Draw21%
Legionovia Legionowo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
2.05
Legionovia Legionowo
1.22

Stal Rzeszów creates 68% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.81
Legionovia Legionowo
1.06

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.38
Legionovia Legionowo
2.29

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
78%
Stal Rzeszów or Legionovia Legionowo
79%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
44%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
34%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
87%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
61%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
33%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
70%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
34%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
72%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.81 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.05

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
56%
level
21%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
22%

Stal Rzeszów at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Rzeszów vs Legionovia Legionowo

Stal Rzeszów beat Legionovia Legionowo 3-1 in II Liga - East on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.