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Stal Rzeszów vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2018

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
11/25/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 16Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stal Rzeszów42%
×Draw25%
Górnik Łęczna33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
1.54
Górnik Łęczna
1.33

Stal Rzeszów creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 86 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.75
Górnik Łęczna
1.13

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.54
Górnik Łęczna
1.33

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Górnik Łęczna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
67%
Stal Rzeszów or Górnik Łęczna
75%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna
58%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
21%
Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
79%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
45%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
20%
Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
74%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
38%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
56%
Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.75 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
42%
level
25%
Górnik Łęczna scores more
33%

Stal Rzeszów at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stal Rzeszów 3–0 Górnik Łęczna

Stal Rzeszów beat Górnik Łęczna 3-0 in I Liga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.