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Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Rzeszów — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
1/29/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Górnik Łęczna70%
×Draw16%
Stal Rzeszów14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna
2.66
Stal Rzeszów
1.10

Górnik Łęczna creates 142% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.85
Stal Rzeszów
1.12

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.08
Stal Rzeszów
3.47

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Stal Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw
86%
Górnik Łęczna or Stal Rzeszów
84%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów
30%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
49%
Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
93%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
74%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
49%
Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
67%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
30%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
84%
Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.85 + Stal Rzeszów defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.66

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.12 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more
70%
level
16%
Stal Rzeszów scores more
14%

Górnik Łęczna at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Rzeszów

Stal Rzeszów beat Górnik Łęczna 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 29, 2025.