GKS Katowice 3–1 Stal Rzeszów: Result & Stats

GKS Katowice

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Stal Rzeszów

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

GKS Katowice77%

×Draw14%

Stal Rzeszów10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS KatowiceExpected goals in this matchStal Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.00

GKS Katowice

3.00

Stal Rzeszów

1.00

GKS Katowice creates 200% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.25

creates per match

1.08

0.92

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

GKS Katowice

2.25

Stal Rzeszów

1.08

allows per match

GKS Katowice

0.92

Stal Rzeszów

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Stal Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw

90%

GKS Katowice or Stal Rzeszów

86%

Draw or Stal Rzeszów

23%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

57%

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

95%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

79%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

56%

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals

63%

Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals

26%

Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

89%

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 2.25 + Stal Rzeszów defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.00

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.08 + GKS Katowice defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

GKS Katowice scores more

77%

level

14%

Stal Rzeszów scores more

10%

GKS Katowice at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

GKS

Stal

Manager: Rafal Gorak

GKS Katowice substitutes

KikolskiJirkaCzerwinskiTrepkaRestaGalanMarkovicWolskiBoschBartlewiczKokosinski

Manager: Marek Zub

Stal Rzeszów substitutes

SokolMachuraWolskiLeniartPukalaBieniaszewskiSalamonPerdutaBrzekSadowskiZieja