Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stal Rzeszów vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
11/30/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Stal Rzeszów45%
×Draw24%
Garbarnia Kraków31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
1.64
Garbarnia Kraków
1.33

Stal Rzeszów creates 23% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.81
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.38
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
69%
Stal Rzeszów or Garbarnia Kraków
76%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
55%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
23%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
81%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
49%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
23%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
74%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
38%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
59%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.81 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
45%
level
24%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
31%

Stal Rzeszów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Rzeszów vs Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Stal Rzeszów 3-2 in II Liga - East on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.