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Stal Rzeszów vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
11/14/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 13Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stal Rzeszów50%
×Draw23%
Bytovia Bytów27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
1.83
Bytovia Bytów
1.27

Stal Rzeszów creates 44% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.81
Bytovia Bytów
1.17

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.38
Bytovia Bytów
1.86

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
73%
Stal Rzeszów or Bytovia Bytów
77%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
50%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
28%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
84%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
54%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
28%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
72%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
36%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
65%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.81 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
50%
level
23%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
27%

Stal Rzeszów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stal Rzeszów 3–3 Bytovia Bytów

Stal Rzeszów and Bytovia Bytów drew 3-3 in II Liga - East on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.