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Stal Rzeszów U19 vs Cracovia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Stal Rzeszów U19
Stal Rzeszów U19
FT
3 – 0
Cracovia U19
Cracovia U19
9/7/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Stal Rzeszów U1950%
×Draw21%
Cracovia U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów U19
2.13
Cracovia U19
1.58

Stal Rzeszów U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 38 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów U19
1.73
Cracovia U19
1.58

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów U19
1.57
Cracovia U19
2.53

finishing

Stal Rzeszów U19+0.00on par
Cracovia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów U19 ↓

Cracovia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów U19 or draw
71%
Stal Rzeszów U19 or Cracovia U19
79%
Draw or Cracovia U19
50%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów U19 wins by 2+
30%
Cracovia U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów U19 1+ goals
88%
Stal Rzeszów U19 2+ goals
63%
Stal Rzeszów U19 3+ goals
35%
Cracovia U19 1+ goals
79%
Cracovia U19 2+ goals
47%
Cracovia U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Cracovia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów U19 attack 1.73 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.13

Cracovia U19 attack 1.58 + Stal Rzeszów U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stal Rzeszów U19 scores more
50%
level
21%
Cracovia U19 scores more
29%

Stal Rzeszów U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Stal Rzeszów U19 3–0 Cracovia U19

Stal Rzeszów U19 beat Cracovia U19 3-0 in Central Youth League on September 7, 2024.