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Stal Rzeszów U18 vs Arka Gdynia U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Stal Rzeszów U18
Stal Rzeszów U18
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Arka Gdynia U18
Arka Gdynia U18
4/29/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stal Rzeszów U1837%
×Draw21%
Arka Gdynia U1842%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów U18
1.89
Arka Gdynia U18
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów U18
1.93
Arka Gdynia U18
1.61

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów U18
2.40
Arka Gdynia U18
1.84

finishing

Stal Rzeszów U18+0.00on par
Arka Gdynia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów U18 ↓

Arka Gdynia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów U18 or draw
58%
Stal Rzeszów U18 or Arka Gdynia U18
79%
Draw or Arka Gdynia U18
63%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów U18 wins by 2+
20%
Arka Gdynia U18 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów U18 1+ goals
85%
Stal Rzeszów U18 2+ goals
56%
Stal Rzeszów U18 3+ goals
29%
Arka Gdynia U18 1+ goals
86%
Arka Gdynia U18 2+ goals
59%
Arka Gdynia U18 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów U18 (draw refunded)
47%
Arka Gdynia U18 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów U18 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Arka Gdynia U18 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów U18 attack 1.93 + Arka Gdynia U18 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.89

Arka Gdynia U18 attack 1.61 + Stal Rzeszów U18 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stal Rzeszów U18 scores more
37%
level
21%
Arka Gdynia U18 scores more
42%

Arka Gdynia U18 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arka Gdynia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Rzeszów U18 vs Arka Gdynia U18

Arka Gdynia U18 beat Stal Rzeszów U18 5-2 in Central Youth League on April 29, 2022.