Stal Mielec 1–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec: Result & Stats

Stal Mielec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

J. Šoljić 80'

P. Mularczyk 75'

11/3/2019

I Liga · Round 16Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Stal Mielec51%

×Draw25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal MielecExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.01

Stal Mielec

1.59

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.01

Stal Mielec creates 57% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 81 away

1.71

creates per match

0.93

1.08

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Stal Mielec

1.71

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.93

allows per match

Stal Mielec

1.08

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw

76%

Stal Mielec or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

75%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

49%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

80%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

47%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

21%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

64%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

68%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.71 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.93 + Stal Mielec defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stal Mielec scores more

51%

level

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

24%

Stal Mielec at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

M. Bodzioch

41'

P. Malecki

46'

A. Prokić← A. Paluchowski

46'

75'

80'

82'

90'

90'

S. Bilenkyi← P. Małecki

90+3'

K. Radkowski← M. Szwed

Stal

Zaglebie

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Marzec

46'▲A. Prokić←▼A. Paluchowski

46'▲J. Šoljić←▼L. Bielak

Stal Mielec substitutes

ProkićŠoljić

Manager: D. Dudek

90'▲S. Bilenkyi←▼P. Małecki

90+3'▲K. Radkowski←▼M. Szwed

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

BilenkyiRadkowski

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Sosnowiec drew 1-1 in I Liga on November 3, 2019.

Goals: P. Mularczyk (75'), J. Šoljić (80').

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Mielec.

Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec