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Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin — Ekstraklasa 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
10/27/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 13Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Stal Mielec41%
×Draw27%
Zaglebie Lubin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.34
Zaglebie Lubin
1.17

Stal Mielec creates 15% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 137 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin
1.20

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.13
Zaglebie Lubin
1.55

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Zaglebie Lubin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Zaglebie Lubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
67%
Stal Mielec or Zaglebie Lubin
73%
Draw or Zaglebie Lubin
59%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
19%
Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
74%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
39%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
15%
Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
69%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
33%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
56%
Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Zaglebie Lubin away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.55 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.14 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.20 + Stal Mielec defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
41%
level
27%
Zaglebie Lubin scores more
33%

Stal Mielec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin

Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato in Mielec.